Surprise, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

221
FXUS65 KPSR 240934
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
234 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic chances for scattered showers will continue across
  portions of South Central and Eastern Arizona through tonight.

- Some convective showers capable of producing small hail and
  lightning will be possible this afternoon into the evening.

- Breezy conditions will materialize along the Lower Colorado
  River including portions of Southeast California and Southwest
  Arizona later today and linger into Sunday.

- Dry conditions return on Sunday along with slightly below
  normal temperatures, then expect gradually warming temperatures
  during the upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The features that will continue to bring us unsettled weather
through tonight are apparent on current midlevel water vapor
satellite imagery: 1) an upper low just west/offshore Central Baja
California that has begun to open up and show signs of
progressing eastward as 2) a few pieces of shortwave energy
rapidly dive southward into the Southwest US - one of which
appears over eastern SoCal and another over the Great Basin/NorCal
presently. The resultant upper level flow in between these
features at this hour shows some degree of convergence over the
forecast area, and so we have seen a break in shower activity,
though light showers continue to blossom over parts of Southeast
AZ. Transient, weaker disturbances spinning around the first
feature will eject northeastward and provide a few foci for shower
development, mainly but not exclusively east/southeast of the
Greater Phoenix Area, through the rest of the morning.

A few changes are noted in the most recent global guidance,
primarily that the shortwave(s) now looks like it will dig
slightly further south over AZ than prior runs, cooling
temperatures aloft several degrees more than previously thought.
As a result, midlevel lapse rates will be more supportive of
convective showers capable of producing small hail and occasional
lightning this afternoon into the evening, with CAPE values from
both GFS bufr soundings and HREF peaking upwards of 100-200 J/kg.
The shortwave over NorCal/Great Basin is the one that models have
been honing in on sending a poorly defined cold front across the
area late today, helping to release the instability present across
the region (in addition to the PVA associated with this feature).
The result will likely be a modest reinvigoration of shower
activity, with some CAMs depicting a scattered line of convective
showers dropping southeastward from the high country and sweeping
some of the lower deserts. However, the quick motion of these
cells will mean that rain totals will be light and localized.
Behind the cold front, much drier air will be ushered into the
region, ending precipitation chances completely overnight.

The other impact of the shortwaves diving further south than
previously thought will be tighter N-S oriented
temperature/pressure gradients, a favorable setup for breezy to
windy conditions down the Colorado River Valley. As such,
anticipate northerly gusts to pick up this afternoon in the
typically susceptible areas along the Lower Colorado River and
adjacent area of SW AZ and SE CA. Fortunately, models depict the
strongest gradient and resultant flow at 850/700 mb peaking
overnight, with speeds up to 35-40 kts. Winds will remain elevated
overnight and perhaps even locally with gusts over 40 mph over
prominent terrain features/ridgetops, but lower desert communities
should see gusts 20-35 mph at most.

Rapidly clearing skies and much drier air tonight will allow a
chilly morning to take shape Sunday morning, with forecast lows in
the mid-to-upper 30s for some rural, sheltered valley communities
across the area. Higher elevation communities east of Phoenix
such as those within the Tonto Basin, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos
may even flirt with freezing temperatures Sunday morning. Monday
morning, with calmer winds overnight, should be a few degrees
colder. Afternoon highs Sunday will be around 2-5 degrees below
normal, in the 60s across the lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A somewhat complex upper level pattern takes shape next week,
with global ensembles in good agreement that the North Pacific jet
will extend well into the east Pacific, and a split jet regime
will evolve downstream over the Western CONUS. Despite the
complexity, midlevel heights paint a quiescent picture, with
ridging sliding east off the Pacific and building over the Western
US (especially over the Northwest). This will result in a warming
trend beginning Monday and lasting through at least the middle of
the upcoming work week. Some breeziness out of the NE/E will be
possible into early next week as suggested by the large-scale MSLP
gradient, but this should not be impactful.

By the latter half of the upcoming work week, WPC cluster
analysis reveals disagreement on the impacts of a possible weather
disturbance undercutting the ridge and influencing the area by
Thursday-Friday. Slight rain chances may re-enter the picture for
the AZ high terrain or Southeast AZ, though this will rely on the
exact trajectory, residence time, and strength of the disturbance.
At this time, the main impact looks to be a temporary pause on
the warming trend and perhaps another period of increased
breeziness. QPF amounts this far out, even at the 90th percentile
of the NBM, are very light and confined to E/SE AZ high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Lowered CIGs, rounds of VCSH/SHRA, shifting winds, and isolated
TS will be the primary aviation impacts and forecast challenges
through Saturday. There is currently a break in shower activity,
but VCSH is expected to return around 10Z and hang around through
around 15Z. CIGs with this activity are expected to lower to
around 6 kft. Winds through the morning are expected to favor an
easterly component with speeds generally aob 5 kt. A break in
activity is then expected from around 15Z through the early
afternoon hours, with CIGs remaining around 6-8 kft. By the early
afternoon hours winds will go westerly/northwesterly, and pick up
speed to around 8-13 kt. Additionally during the mid-afternoon
hours, another round of showers is expected to move in from the
N/NW. So, VCSH has been introduced into the TAFs. These showers
are then expected to exit the region by the late evening hours,
with clouds slowly clearing behind it. This round of scattered
showers will also have the potential for an isolated thunderstorm
with gusty winds and small hail.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through the current TAF
period under periods of thick mid/high level cloud decks. At KIPL,
current light and variable winds will go northerly late Saturday
morning, with speeds remaining aob 7 kt. At KBLH, current
southerly winds will go northerly early Saturday morning. Speeds,
at KBLH, will be aob 5 kt through Saturday morning, by the
afternoon wind speeds will pick up into the 9-13 kt range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Periodic chances for scattered showers continue over portions of
South Central and Eastern AZ through tonight. CWR remains best
well east/southeast of the Greater Phoenix Area, mainly over the
high terrain of the eastern district. A front will sweep the area
from the north later today, resulting in breezy conditions
primarily along the Lower Colorado River Valley and the adjacent
typically prone areas of Southwest AZ and Southeast CA. Breezy
conditions will linger overnight into Sunday morning and subside
Sunday afternoon. MinRHs will be in a 30-50% range areawide today,
locally higher east/southeast of Phoenix, then dry air fills into
the region from the north behind the cold front, dropping MinRHs
into a 10-20% range for the western deserts and 15-30% range for
the eastern districts Sunday onward. Near normal temperatures
today will drop into a slightly below normal range Sunday, then a
warming trend will commence early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...Whittock
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock